U.S. Construction Forecast 2025–26: What’s Driving Demand for Dozers, Cranes & Excavators
Summary: The next 12 months (September 2025 → August 2026) look mixed but workable for contractors. Public works remain steady; commercial and industrial are uneven by market; housing is cautious. Contractors will continue to lean on reliable used equipment—especially dozers, cranes, and excavators—to control costs and move quickly.
Where the market stands now
Fresh federal data shows total U.S. construction spending at $2.139 trillion (SAAR) in July 2025, nearly flat month over month. Public categories held up better than private ones. Highways and streets were estimated at about $142.8 billion (SAAR). Backlogs across nonresidential builders remain solid, and design billings are still soft but showing improving inquiries. Meanwhile, home builder confidence is low, reflecting affordability and rate pressures.
Why used machines matter in 2025–26
New machine lead times, tariffs, and higher borrowing costs have pushed many fleet managers toward used assets. A well-maintained excavator or dozer with modern grade control often delivers 90% of the productivity for a much lower total cost. For cranes, reliable rough‑terrain and all‑terrain units with updated safety tech are trading at a premium where power and data projects are active.
Projected need for used equipment (next 12 months)
| Category | Demand Trend | Price Bias | Specs Moving Fast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excavators (14–25 ton) | Rising (public works, sitework, utilities) | Firm to up | Hydraulic thumbs, couplers, 2D/3D grade assist |
| Dozers (D5–D8 class) | Rising (highways, site prep) | Stable to firm | GPS/UTS control, PAT blades, low‑hour undercarriages |
| Mobile/RT Cranes (50–120 ton) | Steady to rising (utilities, bridges, data centers) | Slight premium | Modern LMI, telematics, strong service records |
Sector signals to watch
- Public infrastructure: Highway, water, and transit work continue to anchor heavy civil activity.
- Commercial & industrial: Uneven, but power and data infrastructure is a bright spot.
- Housing: Sentiment is low; smaller projects and repair/replace work favor compact earthmoving.
Action steps for contractors
- Plan around backlogs and seasonal peaks; reserve equipment early for Q2–Q3 2026.
- Prioritize service history, undercarriage/boom inspections, and grade control compatibility.
- Lock financing before bid day to avoid rate moves; consider operating leases on high‑utilization assets.
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Risks & what could change the outlook
Three swing factors to monitor: interest rates (affecting private work and financing costs), materials pricing (steel, asphalt cement, aggregates), and policy timelines around infrastructure and grid projects. If borrowing costs ease faster than expected, private commercial and residential could reaccelerate, lifting demand and prices for used equipment. If material costs spike or awards slow, expect contractors to stretch fleets longer and shop even harder for proven used machines.
Buying checklist for 2025–26
- Confirm telematics history and oil analysis, not just hours.
- Verify grade‑control compatibility (control box/antennas/masts) before you buy.
- Budget for undercarriage and pin/boom work; small fixes now prevent big downtime later.
Sources
- U.S. Census: Monthly Construction Spending, July 2025. PDF release.
- FRED: Total Construction Spending, TTLCONS (Jul 2025).
- ABC: Construction Backlog Indicator rose to 8.8 months (Jul 2025).
- AIA/Deltek: Architecture Billings Index 46.2 (Jul 2025), inquiries improving.
- NAHB/Wells Fargo: Housing Market Index at 32 (Aug 2025).
